The future of Employment

Abstract

We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as-

sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate

the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, us-

ing a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we ex-

amine expected impacts of future computerisation on us labour mar-

ket outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of

jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability

of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According

to our estimates, about 47 percent of total us employment is at risk.

We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment

exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s proba-

bility of computerisation.